PIIE Warns: CPS '2.2M' Immigrant Drop Could Be Survey Nonresponse—Not Mass Deportations

PIIE’s Jed Kolko argues that 2025 immigration trends are too uncertain to read cleanly into jobs data. He shows how falling CPS response rates could plausibly explain much or all of the reported 2.2 million January–July drop in the foreign-born population, while Census controls likely assume immigration that’s too high. Modeling three immigration scenarios yields wildly different breakeven payroll gains (about 88k, 27k, and -184k per month), complicating Fed and labor-market interpretations. Kolko urges caution and more reliance on indicators less sensitive to population assumptions.