STATE-BY-STATE: IMMIGRATION SLOWDOWN TIGHTENS JOB MARKET; NET INFLOWS DROP TOWARD 500,000 AMID TIGHTER DHS POLICIES

Oxford Economics finds a nationwide immigration slowdown concentrating in states with large undocumented populations, tightening local labor markets and exposing sectoral risks in agriculture, construction, and care. The baseline projects net immigration bottoming near a 500,000 annualized pace by year-end and holding through 2028. Each net unauthorized migrant per 1,000 residents is estimated to reduce the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio by 0.05 points, underscoring localized labor tightness. The trend aligns with broader reporting tied to stricter federal enforcement and reduced legal pathways.