STUDY: DOT/FMCSA NON-DOMICILED CDL RULE + ICE ENFORCEMENT COULD REMOVE 614,000 TRUCKERS

An analysis for J.B. Hunt by Noël Perry (Transport Futures) projects that the Trump administration’s English-language mandate, DOT/FMCSA restrictions on non-domiciled CDLs, and stepped-up ICE enforcement on interstates could push as many as 614,000 commercial drivers out of trucking if fully enforced. The estimate attributes ~197k to English-proficiency failures, ~252k to lacking legal presence, and ~167k to the new non-domiciled CDL rule, with potential capacity shocks and higher spot freight rates. Industry signals remain mostly anecdotal so far, and impacts depend on enforcement intensity and macro demand. The piece situates DOT/ICE actions within a broader federal escalation pattern on English proficiency and licensing for non-citizen drivers.